Tag Archives: CRUT

Climate Models and Climate Temperature Records Tell a Story with Something for Everyone

For a very enlightening discussion of the Earth’s Climate with Charts and Graphs of Measured data, follow this link.  No matter what your position on the topic, you will not be disappointed.  There is something for everyone.

http://climate4you.com/ClimateReflections.htm

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Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

By Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson and Willie Soon

Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine,

2251 Dick George Road,

Cave Junction, Oregon 97523

[artr@oism.org]

Click on page

GWReview_OISM150SeaLevelIncrease_Page_01

(OR, Click on the Link Below)

http://petitionproject.com/gw_article/GWReview_OISM150.pdf

Carbon Dating Explains Climatechange by Following Changes in Cosmic Rays and the Sun

There is an established explanation for the low Carbon14/Carbon12 ratios since the industrial revolution. It follows the activity of the sun inversely. We have had an extended warming period during since the industrial revolution because the Sun has been very active. The way this works is not intuitive, and therefore it has escaped understanding until about ten to fifteen years ago.
An active sun (measured by sunspots for the layman) also has an active magnetic field that extends past the Earth. This magnetic field shields the Earth from Cosmic rays that are basically high speed protons and neutrons released by violent events in space. Positively charged protons are deflected away by the sun’s active magnetic field.

Cosmic rays are responsible for conversion of Carbon12 to heaver Carbon14 by the addition of two neutrons. Carbon 14 is unstable and loses those extra neutrons as alpha radiation, with a half life of about. The reduced proton cosmic rays then reduce the conversion of C12 to C14. It is this very mechanism that fooled the best climate scientists all over the world who thought the Sun had little effect because its radiance changes very little with sunspot activity. When the C14 and C13 curves were compared to the Sunspot curves, they were almost a perfect inverse match. More sunspots, less C14 and C13. Less sunspots, More C14 and C13. So, this shielding effect by the Sun’s magnetic field when the Sun is active prevents proton cosmic rays from reaching Earth.

How Climate scientists were fooled is that they did not realize that an inactive Sun allows cosmic rays to hit the Earth;s atmosphere, and when they do, they stimulate water vapor to condense early and make clouds. Clouds are very reflective and send the Sun’s energy back out into space. This conversion of Water Vapor, the most important Greenhouse gas, responsible for 97% of the Earth’s atmospheric greenhouse effect….. into clouds, causes cooling. At any one time, the Earth is covered 62% to 70% with clouds. Variations in this global cloud cover varies the reflectivity of the Earth like a venetian blind.

TotalCloudCoverVersusGlobalSurfaceAirTemperature

 Basically, clouds cause cooling by reflection, and precipitation. Precipitation is a negative feedback function. As water vapor condenses, it releases heat. That heat gets radiated into space as well, leaving the condensed water as cool clouds and cool rain, causing further cooling. Unless the cloud cover moves out of the way so the water can absorb the Sun’s energy, is stays as water or snow or ice. If the clouds move out of the way, then the water absorbs the heat, evaporating. This has a cooling effect, but the heat is stored in the water vapor. This is another negative feedback effect. The combination of the two negative feedbacks keeps the system from runaway.

The conversion of water vapor to clouds is the ultimate negative feedback, keeping water vapor from getting denser and denser by heating and evaporation. At some point, the Water Vapor condenses, releasing the heat as radiation into space, and forming clouds that shade it from the Sun. Thus, there is no additional heat from the Sun to be absorbed. This dual negative feedback is very effective in keeping an even temperature.

With an inactive Sun, cosmic rays stimulate early condensation of the water vapor, releasing heat early and forming clouds early, exaggerating the cooling effect.

It is this cooling effect that is deemed to be responsible for the lack of amplification for CO2 greenhouse effects, and for the lowered humidity we are seeing at higher altitudes. Water Vapor simply cannot hold as much heat and condenses when Cosmic Rays are abundant and the Sun is in a low activity mode. This is why the CO2 model never worked. The Sun fooled us into thinking it was only directly heating with a small variation in radiance.

The indirect effect of the Sun is so huge, it even drowns out the Greenhouse effect. It does this because water vapor is convertible into water, snow and ice, with huge loss or gain of heat. This indirect effect of the Sun is so powerful that we are entering a deep cooling, based on historical periods when the Sun’s activity as measures by sunspots was very low. No matter what we say or do, we are cooling here on Earth, and it will be more and more obvious with each year as winters get longer and deeper.

The Sun is now headed back down to nearly zero sunspot activity as it was four to five years ago. We are actually at a peak that is 50% lower than the peak in 2000, and that one was 30% lower than 1998. It is bad. We are going into a very cold period. It has already begun. The arctic ice extent has returned almost back to the normal mean, from the lowest period in 2012. It only took two years, 2013 and 2014. The cooling will accelerate as the current sunspot maximum dives down to zero again, as it was for about two years in 2009-2010. The sun’s poles are flipping. There is no reason to believe the Sun’s activity will rebound quickly, if it does at all for one or two normal cycles. There will be no warming until the flip is completed and gets established. It may take 20 to 40 years.

We have been preparing for exactly the wrong thing because the CO2 climate model was trumped up with amplification that water vapor could never provide since it changes state into water, snow and ice and goes back again within the normal seasonal weather temperature ranges we have on Earth. One of these states is as clouds in the atmosphere, shading the area underneath and very effectively reflecting infrared back into space. Clouds, it turns out, are indirectly controlled by the Sun’s magnetic field that varies in cycles of about 20 years, with longer cycles of about 160 years and 210 years, and those longer cycles are having a coincident minimum right now.

Earth’s inhabitants are not getting much notice. within the next two years, this dramatic dive in temperatures will be so obvious, another panic will set in. You see, Global Cooling is a mortal danger. Freezing temperatures kill. Cold short growing seasons prevent growing plants and animals for food. The predictions for Global Warming were bad, but the predictions for Global Cooling are far worse. Millions, perhaps Billions of humans could die if we cannot adapt.

Clouds, Rain and Snow and the Sun are the most powerful climate forces yet they are left out of Globalwarming discussions

Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com

How can anyone talk about weather or climate changes while only talking of CO2 as the driving force? The SUN, WATER EVAPORATION, CLOUDS, Rain and Snow do it all instead. CO2 does nothing significant. The greenhouse gas effect of CO2 is just an interesting laboratory experiment. The idea that it could drive the Earth’s weather was an idea that has proven to be impossible.  There is not enough CO2 in the Earth’s Atmosphere to make any difference in the weather. See Paullitely.com for clear details.
Recent weather continues to get colder, not hotter. When will the media stop their conspiracy with well-meaning scientists who have sold out to reduce Fossil Fuel consumption? Will they apologize as we go deeper into the little ice age and it is obvious to all? Will we ever trust “Science” again? How many more of us will die from not being able to pay for fuel to heat and food to eat? British pensioners die by the thousands each year this way already. Cold weather kills. Cold weather prevents growing food.

Global Warming is just not happening now.  It has not happened as a consequence of CO2 EVER!  However, there have been periods when CO2 concentrations went up with global temperature, but it was not cause-and-effect.  Instead, it was coincidence.  Those who would influence people and nations to reduce their consumption of Fossil Fuels used this period of coincidence to say they had “Proven” that CO2 controls the Earth’s Weather.  This is flatly untrue.  The Earth has been cooling for the last 3,000 years while CO2 has been increasing for 7,000 years.

For details, charts and graphs and links to authorities on Climate and Weather, move on to the next posts here at http://Paullitely.wordpress.com

We are Being Led Toward a Fantasy Future While We Should Be Preparing for a Different Deadly Climate

Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com

The idea of “Energy Storage” in the oceans, or anywhere else on Earth without increased Solar heating at the surface is not evident. What is evident is that The Earth’s 97% Dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor. It is so dominant that it is the only significant greenhouse gas.  It is not controlled by trace greenhouse gasses such as CO2.  I understand this is not what we have been told, but bear with me here.  Because water vapor transforms into clouds, it is impossible for the Earth’s temperature to runaway. More heat makes more clouds, and that makes more shade, to keep it in balance.

The dissipation of heat in the Earth’s atmosphere by upward radiation to space is enormous. The reflection of the Sun’s energy  off of clouds, back out into space is enormous. This heat has to be replaced daily by the Sun to keep the Earth from cooling. The dissipation of heat can only be balanced when the Earths “Venetian Blinds”, meaning the Cloud Cover, opens up so the surface of the Earth’s land and oceans can be absorb the Sun’s direct infrared radiation and be warmed

Today’s very low and rapidly declining activity of the Sun is indirectly increasing the Earth’s average cloudiness, driving us into a very cold future climate. The mechanism for this has only recently been understood. Cloud cover will be shading us increasingly Until the Sun finishes flipping North and South poles, as it does approximately every 200 years. It will take a while to finish the flip it has started. It may take 70 years, as it did in the 1600’s. Many, many people will freeze and starve unless we can have inexpensive energy for heating and to transport food from warm climates to our cold latitudes. Canada and Northern Europe will have great difficulty, as well as Russia, and the Northern US.

All types of Fossil Fuels will be essential to survival, but Clean Burning may still be a priority, increasing the cost of that energy. Nuclear energy may make a resurgence, fulfilling the promise made decades ago. Of course, the same powers that are sucking us of our treasure today may be selling the fuel and food at higher prices, at the exaggerated and unfortunate expense of those who can least afford it. Political unrest may be inevitable as patience becomes opposite to survival. Benevolent leaders may prevent this, especially if they get a head start.

It is so obvious that our greedy political leaders and “Scientists”, led by those at the UN, continue the spread of misinformation and misdirection through the popular media for their own personal gain, They all want to get paid as long as possible before the weather proves the “Emperor Has No Clothes”. Major industries have been created with subsidies and grants and tax credits based on fears of the non-existent dominant CO2 Global Warming. Those industries, too, will feed the fairy tale until they can no longer hold on to what will be obvious lies.. Their credibility will be lost.
Without credible traditional political and scientific leaders, the public may go random or be susceptible to radical ideas. The anarchy desired by anti-establishment activists may come to pass, with disastrous consequences for us AND them. Look at what filled the vacuum left behind when stable governments and societal structures were shattered in the Middle East. Activists, just like terrorist extremists, believe they can step into the vacuum and establish a society based on THEIR utopian ideas. That is their stated and unstated goal. However, Utopias are inherently unstable and doomed to failure because they attempt to enforce the denial of some elements of human nature and enforce the cultivation of other elements of human nature. They become manipulative.
All of human history has shown that all elements of human nature will always express themselves. Thank you, Shakespeare for your illuminating plays of passion. Totalitarian societies can be stable, while being undesirably intolerant and abusive, OR they can be benevolent. An unstable disorderly uncivilized undemocratic environment gives room for the worst elements of human nature to get a foothold by force or fiat, and be similarly intolerant and abusive. Unfortunately, self-serving or messianic characters are frequently successful in the struggle for dominance and power.
Truly democratic societies are flexible living things, and may swing from moderate extreme to moderate extreme, but they tend towards freedom of expression with protection from physical harm. What we have in the United States is not perfect, but is more perfect than what else is out there, and it deserves patience as it glacially moves to the will of the people, and hopefully to the vision of wise leaders. Of course, we get impatient. Bless us with wise leaders.
Hopefully, enough of those political and scientific leaders will see the light and
JOIN THE RISING CONSENSUS OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALWAYS SEEN WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING IN EARTH’S CLIMATE, AND THOSE WHO ARE NOW SEEING IT CLEARLY FOR THE FIRST TIME FROM OPEN MINDED INVESTIGATION.
Then, those leaders can lead with informed clarity and dignity to help us prepare for the difficult and deadly climate future we have already entered.
We are being prepared by our leaders for the opposite of what we should be preparing for. We are facing Decades of deadly cold weather. Shame on them and God save us all. We have to prepare ourselves in spite of the misdirection and the ongoing waste of vast amounts of capital, both financial and human. We have to raise our own individual awareness of the misdirection by looking out the window at the weather and discovering indisputable facts. Then, we must question why it does not match up with the “Official” predictions. It is possible to question raw authority and make up our own minds from ALL the information available. We need to select leaders (VOTE) who are curious and informed and objective to be truly responsible for the welfare of their constituents. Dogmatism leads to dog days. Dishonest leaders take us to destinations of their benefit, not ours.
Earlier, Colder, Longer Winters have already begun. This means by definition that the Earth is cooling, regardless of occasional Summer heat spikes. Summer may all but disappear, as it did 200 years ago and 400 years ago, when the Sun previously flipped North and South poles. More ice is rapidly accumulating at the Earth’s poles. Let’s continue to watch them and other indicators of the Cooling of the Earth, while beneficial CO2 accumulates to fertilize green plants and trees. CO2 will ironically help to solve the world’s coming food crisis from shorter and colder growing seasons.

UNfortunate for the GOP if they Cave In to Globalwarming Activists

Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com

Re the article:

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/opinion/3203812-181/herdt-california-mayor-has-right

Unfortunate for the GOP if they cave in to the Global Warming alarmists.  Then THEY TOO will be shown to be wrong in the next few years as the climate turns colder and colder in the “Landscheidt Minimum” little ice age.  If they just adhere to their position, supported by real science, then they will be able to overturn the Democrats credibility as the charlatans they are on this topic.

I have come to the conclusion that all these “Climate Actions” are ways to create a cash slush fund that the public has to swallow or be unresponsive to the shrill climate activists claims and statements.  This applies from the very top at the UN, down through the countries to the states to the counties to the individual cities and beyond.  What is being done now at the UN to get commitments from countries for 10+ Billion dollars, along with this article you brought up shows this.  Fortunately, there is some rebellion, particularly by Austrailia, who is saying NO, we don’t have money to hire people to look for ways to make life more difficult and expensive, but we do have money to save the reefs and the rainforests by stopping them from being despoiled by illegal logging and dredging.  Hopefully, the taxpayers, who have to pay for all these slush funds, will be asking questions about what they get for the $.  So far, nothing has been done to change the weather, and the weather is fixing itself despite claims to the contrary.  The more obvious this becomes, the more the public will call for a stop to the waste of their tax dollars, as is being done in Austrailia.  The next few years will be colder and colder, making it undeniable that humans are not changing the weather as claimed by the beneficiaries of the slush funds.  So many jobs and budgets depend on the sharade that it will not go quietly, that is for sure.

The Best Short Summary of Today’s Climate Science

Here is a very accurate summary of today’s climate science with the latest developments.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
Try

Christopher Richey Post 1 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC

Christopher Richey12 hours ago

“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.” says Hans Von Storch – Director of the Institute for Coastal Research

http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/060619_ushouse_energycommercehvs.pdf

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Storch

“Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”

However, he calls into question the methodology of many others and their interpretation of the data.

How valid are the regression-type methodologies for reconstruction of actual historical climates?

“Regression-type models are designed so that they return only part of the full variability of the variable of interest, namely that part which can be traced back to the proxies. Not all of the variability can be accounted for in this way. The difference in variability of temperature and of proxy-derived temperature is dealt with by “scaling”, i.e., by applying a suitable normalization. If “scaling” is used, then the basic principle of regression is violated, as the part of variability in the predict and (temperature), which can not statistically traced back to the predictor (proxy), is nevertheless related to predictor-variability.”

How relevant are these reconstructions for claims that we presently experience a climate change outside the range of what we consider as “normal?”

“One would expect it to manifest itself with a higher “than normal” rate of change. Thus, the signal is expected to be a rapid warming in the most recent past. The method to test this hypothesis is to find out if we have a “steeper-than-normal” recent upward temperature trend.”

“According to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero.”

Did you get that?

CLOSE TO ZERO…

It’s in the IPCC June 2014 Fifth Assessment report AR5:
“…the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence). The decline in the rate of increase in ERF is primarily attributed to natural (solar and volcanic) forcing but there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol forcing trend.” (AR5 Chapter 11).

The Solar Forcing Trend is indirect, so they do not consider it to be significant, and it fooled them, even though it turns out to be dominant by regulating cloud formation.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html

Christopher Richey Post 2 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC

Christopher Richey12 hours ago
Dr. Vahrenholt expects the world to get cooler in the future for three reasons: (1) we are or soon will be beginning on the downward flank of the Sun’s Gleissberg and Suess cycles; (2) solar activity during the next cycle may extend our current very weak one; and (3) ocean cycles will be in cooling phases over the next decades as well.A research team in Sweden which analyzed patterns of solar activity at the end of the last Ice Age around 20,000 – 10,000 years ago concluded that changes in solar activity and their influences on climate are nothing new, especially on a regional level. – See more at:

http://www.cfact.org/2014/08/25/sunspot-trends-suggest-global-cooling-ahead/#sthash.DBMllhtg.dpuf

Christopher Richey Post 3 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC

Christopher Richey12 hours ago
The scientists reporting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report of Sept. 27, 2013, actually said “confidence in attribution to human influence remains low due to modelling uncertainties and low agreement between scientific studies.”

Pages 114 and 115 of the Technical Summary of the September 2013 IPCC Working Sciences Group I report show that the scientists make no predictive forecasts of catastrophe, stating they do not have sufficient long-term data.

http://ion.remss.com/idx/ion-p.exe?ION__V1=day%3AINT%3A26&ION__V2=month%3AINT%3A11&ION__V3=year%3AINT%3A2013&ION__V4=pass%3AINT%3A1&ION__V5=boxx%3AINT%3A180&ION__V6=boxy%3AINT%3A180&ION__V7=zoom%3AINT%3A2&ION__V8=CENTER_X%3AINT%3A112&ION__V9=CENTER_Y%3AINT%3A76&ION__V10=color_style%3ASTR%3Aabsolute&ION__E1=UPDATE%3Aion%3A%2F%2Ftmi_daily.ion&ION__E2=CENTER_IMAGE%3Aion%3A%2F%2Ftmi_daily.ion&user_year=2013&user_month=11&user_day=26&user_pass=1&user_boxx=180&user_boxy=180&user_zoom=2&user_color_style=absolute&CENTER_IMAGE.x=177&CENTER_IMAGE.y=88

“In other words, the NODC’s ocean heat content data for depths of 0-700 meters is primarily a Northern Hemisphere dataset before the early-to-mid 2000s. Or to phrase it another way, there was basically no coverage of the oceans in the Southern Hemisphere before ARGO.”

So, the reason these charts were based on ‘Average Pentadal’ research, is because that is all that they have…5 years of data…which they have ‘reverse engineered’ into other non-existent data back to the beginning of the century.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/11/12/comments-on-stefan-rahmstorfs-post-at-realclimate-what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Ocean_Database_Project

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOD09/pr_wod09.html

By the way, the writer of this article didn’t bother to analyze the VAST amount of information that goes along with it…all, also, reverse engineered to fit their models, not observations.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index2.html

And while we are at it, how about using numbers that HAVE actually been collected for more than 5 years:

And this illustrates the full measure of the farce. GLOBAL means EVERYWHERE! But, none of the ‘Warmers’ have data to support ANY global correlations. It is not possible to have before 5 years ago…and what they are measuring now is completely explained by El Nina…

http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/nodc-temp-obs-at-1500m.gif