Here is a very accurate summary of today’s climate science with the latest developments.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
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Tag Archives: Carbon Tax
Christopher Richey Post 1 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC
Christopher Richey12 hours ago
“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.” says Hans Von Storch – Director of the Institute for Coastal Research
Click to access 060619_ushouse_energycommercehvs.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Storch
“Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
However, he calls into question the methodology of many others and their interpretation of the data.
How valid are the regression-type methodologies for reconstruction of actual historical climates?
“Regression-type models are designed so that they return only part of the full variability of the variable of interest, namely that part which can be traced back to the proxies. Not all of the variability can be accounted for in this way. The difference in variability of temperature and of proxy-derived temperature is dealt with by “scaling”, i.e., by applying a suitable normalization. If “scaling” is used, then the basic principle of regression is violated, as the part of variability in the predict and (temperature), which can not statistically traced back to the predictor (proxy), is nevertheless related to predictor-variability.”
How relevant are these reconstructions for claims that we presently experience a climate change outside the range of what we consider as “normal?”
“One would expect it to manifest itself with a higher “than normal” rate of change. Thus, the signal is expected to be a rapid warming in the most recent past. The method to test this hypothesis is to find out if we have a “steeper-than-normal” recent upward temperature trend.”
“According to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero.”
Did you get that?
CLOSE TO ZERO…
It’s in the IPCC June 2014 Fifth Assessment report AR5:
“…the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence). The decline in the rate of increase in ERF is primarily attributed to natural (solar and volcanic) forcing but there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol forcing trend.” (AR5 Chapter 11).
The Solar Forcing Trend is indirect, so they do not consider it to be significant, and it fooled them, even though it turns out to be dominant by regulating cloud formation.
Christopher Richey Post 2 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC
Christopher Richey12 hours ago
Dr. Vahrenholt expects the world to get cooler in the future for three reasons: (1) we are or soon will be beginning on the downward flank of the Sun’s Gleissberg and Suess cycles; (2) solar activity during the next cycle may extend our current very weak one; and (3) ocean cycles will be in cooling phases over the next decades as well.A research team in Sweden which analyzed patterns of solar activity at the end of the last Ice Age around 20,000 – 10,000 years ago concluded that changes in solar activity and their influences on climate are nothing new, especially on a regional level. – See more at:
http://www.cfact.org/2014/08/25/sunspot-trends-suggest-global-cooling-ahead/#sthash.DBMllhtg.dpuf
Christopher Richey Post 3 on http://alj.am/1s5raGC
Christopher Richey12 hours ago
The scientists reporting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report of Sept. 27, 2013, actually said “confidence in attribution to human influence remains low due to modelling uncertainties and low agreement between scientific studies.”
Pages 114 and 115 of the Technical Summary of the September 2013 IPCC Working Sciences Group I report show that the scientists make no predictive forecasts of catastrophe, stating they do not have sufficient long-term data.
“In other words, the NODC’s ocean heat content data for depths of 0-700 meters is primarily a Northern Hemisphere dataset before the early-to-mid 2000s. Or to phrase it another way, there was basically no coverage of the oceans in the Southern Hemisphere before ARGO.”
So, the reason these charts were based on ‘Average Pentadal’ research, is because that is all that they have…5 years of data…which they have ‘reverse engineered’ into other non-existent data back to the beginning of the century.
Comments on Stefan Rahmstorf’s Post at RealClimate “What ocean heating reveals about global warming”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Ocean_Database_Project
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOD09/pr_wod09.html
By the way, the writer of this article didn’t bother to analyze the VAST amount of information that goes along with it…all, also, reverse engineered to fit their models, not observations.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index2.html
And while we are at it, how about using numbers that HAVE actually been collected for more than 5 years:
And this illustrates the full measure of the farce. GLOBAL means EVERYWHERE! But, none of the ‘Warmers’ have data to support ANY global correlations. It is not possible to have before 5 years ago…and what they are measuring now is completely explained by El Nina…
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/nodc-temp-obs-at-1500m.gif
I have been asked for a simple explanation of the science in the Global Warming Debate
Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com
(Follow the companion twitter site http://twitter.com/paullitely or @paullitely)
Follow this link to a current article that very accurately summarizes today’s Climate Science Debate
Mail OnLine article 22 September 2014
I have been asked for a simple explanation of the science in the Global Warming Debate. After Six years of following it, I do understand, so here it is in simple terms.
The global Warming “scientists” would have you believe that the simple basic water cycle you learned about in Elementary School or Kindergarten breaks down and works differently with the introduction of a tiny bit of warming from the human caused 10% of the Green House Gas (GHG) effect of Carbon Dioxide.
Green House Gasses are called that because they absorb and hold heat, then can send that heat back out as radiation. Anyone in hot and humid weather feels as if they are inside a greenhouse, with the water vapor in the air itself radiating heat, because it does.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) only accounts for 0.6% of the Green House Gas effect in our Earth’s Atmosphere. 97% of the Green House Gas effect is from water vapor. Water Vapor is not wet, it is humidity, it is a gas.
The Global Warming THEORY (GWT) proposes that if heat comes from CO2, then this 97% of GHG effect from Water Vapor can behave differently from what naturally happens… without proof or experiment. This is a surprisingly unscientific claim.
The natural water cycle is described as the sun heating seas, evaporating water into vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere. When water is evaporated, it absorbs heat, cooling everything around it, and this slows the evaporation so it takes more and more heat to continue evaporating. The water vapor is lighter than air, so it rises until it reaches an altitude where the air is naturally much cooler, and there it condenses. When water vapor condenses, it returns to water form as clouds, fog, or mist, rain and snow. When water condenses, it releases heat into the clouds, warming the clouds, and this slows the condensation. The clouds radiate much of that heat up into space,never to return, and the cold air up there carries away even more heat. Clouds continue to form, until finally the tiny water droplets combine and get heavy, to fall as rain or snow. The clouds also reflect the sun’s radiation with their bright white tops.shading and cooling the seas or land underneath. The cycle is repeated, and the water that fell as rain or snow is then heated and evaporated and becomes clouds, then rain and snow and round and round. Solar energy can only push temperatures so far, because heat is lost by radiation into space by the clouds, and clouds themselves reflect as much as 400 watts per square meter back towards the sun and space. The atmosphere will continue cooling by itself unless the Sun adds more heat. This natural temperature limiting is called a “Negative Feedback” System, and is responsible for stable temperature ranges by heating the land and seas when the sun is not blocked by clouds, and cooling when there are clouds.
The First unnatural and Fatal Assumption of GWT is that the warming from CO2 can cause a dramatic increase in the evaporation of water from the Earth’s seas into the atmosphere and add significantly to the water vapor that is there. This does not happen, because CO2 is only responsible for 0.6% of the Earth’s Green House Gas effect. This unnatural assumption goes on to say that the heating from the CO2 causes evaporation, making significant amounts of added water vapor. GWT assumes that the added water vapor continues to accumulate as a green house gas without forming clouds or rain or snow. This assumption is known in the theory as amplification, and is the very basis for identifying CO2 as making Global Warming. But CO2 is so weak as a Direct Green House Gas that it does little to significantly increase the water vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The second unnatural and Fatal Assumption is that the Earth’s Atmosphere can absorb huge amounts of Water Vapor without making more clouds and Rain or Snow. Air that is already saturated with Water Vapor cannot absorb more… it just condenses into clouds, rain or snow. GWT assumes that this extra water vapor goes into the upper atmosphere above the clouds to act as a greenhouse gas where the air is drier. This has never been observed. This does not happen, and in fact, the upper atmosphere has been getting dryer over the last twenty years. GWT claims that this would happen especially at the Earth’s equator, where the intensity of the sun is nearly constant with the seasons. What has been observed instead is warmer water makes more clouds, and rain, and in fact, that is the source of tropical storms. There has been no observed increase in water vapor at higher altitudes, even in between the clouds.
The Third unnatural and fatal assumption is that this additional water vapor in the upper atmosphere will act as a greenhouse gas, increase the warming below, causing more evaporation of the seas. They say that more evaporation makes more water vapor, and that makes for more warming, making more water vapor, and around and around in a runaway heating cycle without making more clouds or rain or snow. If this did happen, we would be in a very hot and humid atmosphere everywhere that would not need any help from CO2. CO2 would be even more insignificant. This is called a “Positive Feedback” System, where the sun could go away entirely, but the atmosphere would keep on getting warmer or stay hot. Is this a likely scenario? No. Clouds are the automatic regulator against runaway heating.
The Fourth Unnatural and Fatal Assumption is that the CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is mostly increasing because of humans burning Fossil Fuels, and it is a dangerous, even poisonous gas. In fact, over 90% of the CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is continually turning over, being made and absorbed by natural processes. All green plants need and want CO2 for healthy growth. It is estimated that less than 10% of the CO2 is man made, but the exact amount is unknown. GWT accountants add it up, and others estimate the CO2 emitted from known sources, including power plants and transportation.
The level of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is about 400 parts per million. It has been as high as 2200 parts per million in the Earth’s past, and from experiments, the ideal level for plants is 2000 parts per million. Greenhouses in Canada direct the exhaust from their heaters directly into their greenhouses to double the plant growth and health from the added CO2.. Humans do not notice concentrations as high as 800 Parts per million unless doing strenuous exercise. High CO2 levels in the bloodstream give us our breathing reflex. We put CO2 in sparkling drinks. How poisonous is that?
Why would scientists, who are expected by everyone to be objective in their research and their work, propose that the well known natural water cycle behaves differently if a little bit of heat comes from CO2 as a greenhouse gas?
Why would scientists who may lead boring and underpaid lives support the obviously flawed GWT in response to Billions of dollars offered by the United Nations, and the governments of developed countries?
Why would politicians support GWT so they can tax and spend and create whole new industries and businesses for their friends and supporters, and get re-elected boasting about their accomplishments?
Why WOULDN’T They? Besides, they can be justified by the agenda of the Global Warming Theorists, appealing to many scientists who believe in less industrialization and less consumption of Fossil Fuels. The goal is to make Humans Change their behavior and burn less Fossil Fuels. If it means bending natures laws without her permission, being paid well, traveling the world, being recognized favorably by politicians and heads of state, being published and peer reviewed by like minded scientists and non-scientists, and declaring in unison that increased CO2 is hazardous according to their MODEL so be it. They are said to be on the “Cocktail Shrimp Tour” within their own ranks. Climate Research had an annual budget of $50 Million Dollars in the 1970s. Today, its over $30 Billion. It is so big it is no longer science, it is international politics and employment.
However, Scientists and Politicians who promote GWT live in daily fear of losing their grants and their paychecks and their positions of personal status. The actual weather has turned opposite to what has been predicted by GWT. It is getting much colder, not much warmer. The CO2 Global Warming promoters are fighting and clawing and getting aggressive and louder and even more outrageous in their claims and explanations, to try to align PERCEPTIONS of their theory to the actual weather. At some point soon, all credibility will be lost. Cold is not hot. Black is not the new White.
Australians are known for being shrewd judges of character. Australia lead the way on Global Warming by instituting Carbon Tax laws. Australia lead the way again two years later by repealing all twelve of them and electing a new government on that promise in 2014. More than half of the Australian population polled in 2014 thinks what is being done in the name of “Carbon” will make little or no difference in the Earth’s climate. They elected a new government on promises to repeal the Carbon Tax laws, done, and the new Australian Prime Minister Abbott sacked the head of the “Climate Office”, sacked all the employees, and closed the “Climate Office” .
In the UK, Prime Minister David Cameron saw evidence that over 30,000 pensioners died last winter from having to choose to pay to either eat or heat. Some did not get enough of either. The pursuit of “Carbon” has raised the price of food and energy. This is very unpopular for those who live on fixed incomes and vote. David Cameron has seen what happened in Australia, and he wants none of it. David Cameron is quoted as saying privately “We’ve got to get rid of all this green crap”. After the UK, we could be next, if the US begins carbon taxes, driving up the price of essentials such as rent, fuel and food for everybody.
This agenda against burning fossil fuels is obvious because they make no mention of the vast amounts of Carbon Dioxide generated by humans in lesser developed countries that have no big power plants or cities teaming with fossil-fueled traffic.
Over half of the human population on Earth burns wood or dung or peat for heating and cooking and sets fires for land clearing and flushing out game for hunting. The vast amounts of CO2 from these sources is ignored by the GWT. They just count the known estimated tons of CO2 “Carbon” from power plants and vehicles and demand a reduction. (BTW, The use of the term “Carbon” is totally unscientific. Carbon is a solid, is in every living thing, and has none of the characteristics of CO2.)
Just the CO2 and pollution from Sumatra alone in one year exceeds the CO2 and pollution from all the Cars and Trucks in the US. A family of four in Africa burns 14 Kilos of wood a DAY for heating and cooking. Vast areas of organics are burned by Humans, or are naturally set on fire by lightning every year. The quest for more things to burn, results in a desert landscape and the obliteration of Greenery that keeps CO2 and Oxygen in balance.
Viewed this way, it is obvious that the GWT agenda is to reduce industrialization and burning of Fossil Fuels, while ignoring the possibility of making a huge difference in lesser developed countries Burning wood, dung, or peat results in awful pollution that is truly dirty, sooty, ash filled smoky and hazardous to human health. If CO2 reduction and atmospheric pollution reduction were the goal, it is even more important to attack those sources of CO2. Some of those lesser developed countries are doing a good job on their own. Dominican Republic, next to Haiti has banned burning wood or using fires for land clearing. Other countries require at least one tree to be planted when one is cut down. Consequently, their air is cleaner, and they have much more greenery to absorb CO2 and release oxygen.
Reducing air pollution, and preserving or restoring nature is a noble and worthy effort. I am an environmentalist and a nature lover. However, making life more expensive, inconvenient uncomfortable, and difficult, even to the point of death from having to choose between eating or heating in the winter is immoral when the stated goal is to control the Earth’s weather. It is simply impossible for humans to control the weather on a global scale. It is a political agenda of lies, and an impossible science. It has created whole new industries that, like the fossil fuel industry are supported by extravagant tax subsidies. Is it worth it?
Renewable energy is a great idea, if practical. Fossil fuels from dastardly dirty recovery techniques such as “Fracking” are sacrificing our natural future with irretrievable underground pollution. Windmill farms will be even more unsightly when they are no longer economical to maintain. Solar panels may not work as well in the coming longer colder winters caused by increased cloud cover.
GWT promoters said at the beginning they MAY BE WRONG, but just in case, we should do something about it. The recent weather shows they were clearly wrong when theorizing that CO2 in the atmosphere dominates the Earth’s climate future. Heating from CO2 greenhouse gas effects is not amplified by the dominant Greenhouse Gas, Water Vapor as if there were no limits. Water Vapor continues to act normally. Water Vapor still absorbs the sun’s energy and makes clouds and rain and snow in response to Solar energy. Clouds reflect nearly all Solar Infrared (heating) energy. The absorption of heat by evaporation to be released back into space by clouds, and reflection of Solar heating energy by clouds limits temperature rises. Solar Energy is continually being heavily “Grounded”, and cannot possibly go into runaway warming. Clouds are the reason, and the thermostat effects of clouds were left out of the GWT model.
The GWT model was blindsided dramatically by an unexpected indirect effect of the Sun’s Activity on clouds. The Sun’s Activity is measured by the numbers of Sunspots. Since the Sun’s infrared (Heating) radiation only varies by about 3%, GWT discounted the effects of the Sun’s Activity on Global Climate. They said this is not enough to compete with the AMPLIFIED greenhouse gas effects of CO2. What fooled them is that there is an indirect effect of the Sun’s activity… it changes the amount of clouds covering the surface of Earth. They were focused on CO2, and could not explain why a clear relationship between the Sun’s activity and the formation of clouds has been observed in the Earth’s historical record. So, they left it out. What was needed was an explanation. The clue came from another observation in the Earth’s historic record. The Earth’s temperature record is almost exactly opposite to the amount of Cosmic Rays that have reached Earth. It is such a tight match that it is obvious there is a simple mechanism. Experimental results have confirmed THIS theory. Here is how it works. When the Sun is quiet, the Sun’s magnetic field is only strong close to the sun and does not extend out to Earth. This allows Cosmic rays (loose high-energy protons and neutrons and electrons) to enter the Earth’s atmosphere and assist in the formation of clouds. This cools the Earth. When the Sun is Very active, the Sun’s magnetic field deflects cosmic rays away from the Earth’s atmosphere. This prevents the formation of some of the Earth’s clouds, allowing the Sun’s heating radiation to the surface of the land and oceans. This heats the Earth. Basically, the activity of the sun controls the blinds (clouds) that block the Sun’s infrared (Heating) energy from reaching the surface of the Earth.
Active Sun opens the blinds. Calm Sun closes the blinds. Now THIS IS AN AMPLIFICATION.
This Video explains the MULTIPLE ways we know the Earth’s climate closely follows the activity of the Sun (spots).
Why is it important that an active Sun or an inactive Sun causes an amplified effect on the Earth’s temperature? It is EXTREMELY important today. For almost two hundred years, since the last deep cold period on Earth, the Sun’s activity has been doing it’s usual 22-year long cycles, with the peak high cycles about the same strength. THEN, the peak in 2003 was 30% lower. AGAIN, next peak in 2014 is 30% lower. This means the current Sun activity peak is 60% BELOW NORMAL. It appears that the next peak could be lower still, as the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse. This is happening right on time according to historic records of long term solar cycle variations, and is much more serious than the last deep cold period 200 years ago. So, just what is happening on time? A mini ice age, as the Sun’s extremely low activity allows cosmic rays through to form clouds on the Earth, blocking the Sun’s heating radiation. This is scary. The high speed of the cooling has been obvious since 2012. Global temperatures are headed downward fast. Polar Ice came back almost to normal in two years. Antarctic ice is at the highest in recorded history. The great lakes froze over in the winter of 2013-2014.
Cold temperature records are being set, Winter AND Summer.
German Climate Scientists have joined in saying we are already into a deadly Global Cooling cycle.
Australian Climate Scientists were way ahead of them all.
In the US, with two more long and very cold winters, and two more cold summers ahead, coupled with implementing “Carbon Taxes” could result in a new government being swept into power by public opinion as happened in Australia. https://t.co/wsU3ONZ2KW It could result in a Republican president and majority in both houses of congress in 2016. Citizens and voters will not be very kind to their leaders for increasing the cost of food and fuel and general living while preparing them for a future of increasing heat, when the opposite is happening, increasing cold, deadly cold, leading to decades of more cold, where energy for heating means life or death and food is scarce. The credibility lost for Politicians may also be lost for science itself for selling itself out. I hope not. I hope I am wrong, but I have a 97% consensus within myself that I am right from watching the weather, and reviewing ALL the science in open debate.
Global Warming is Already Global Cooling. Keep Your Warm Clothing!
Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com
Here is a very accurate summary of today’s climate science with the latest developments.
Mail OnLine Article 23 September 2014
But, what is really happening with the weather, arctic ice, and global temperatures?
July 2014 Sets Low Temperature Records Across the USA.
Winter Power Blackouts Forecast for 2014-2015 in USA and UK.
Arctic & Antarctic Ice Extent has come back to stay 2013 and 2014.
Greenland Ice is increasing fast in 2013-2014.
Arctic summer temperatures are below average in 2014.
Global temperatures are diving down now, as measured by Satellites.
Carbon Dioxide goes up while Global Temperatures go down.
Climate Scientist who worked on Global Warming describes how he found out CO2 fails.
Don Easterbrook shows how Actual weather temperatures can be predicted.
Predicted Global Warming Sea Level increases are physically impossible
Weatherman and Founder of The Weather Channel explains Al Gore
Temperature Measurement Records for the last 100 have been intentionally manipulated to show warming instead of cooling because they do not comply with the Global Warming story.
Who’s going to be sacked for making-up global warming at Rutherglen?
Australia voters did not want Carbon Tax Laws and Two Years after carbon tax laws were enacted, they were repealed in July 2014.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims to be THE authority on Global Climate Change. In a leaked September 2013 draft paper, the IPCC admitted global warming is much less than they predicted, and the IPCC will not explain why. If The IPCC is the world’s authority on Climate Change, they should know why. They do know, but they will not explain because their Climate Change Model has only one explanation for climate change, and that is CO2 released by humans. This model was an untested THEORY based on the ASSUMPTION that humans can control the weather by burning oil, gas, and coal. After the last ten years of measuring actual weather vs the predictions, the model is now tested, and it failed. There is no global warming in the last ten years for ANY reason.
The IPCC, in their report, limited their recent temperature record to 1998 to 2013 so they could show SOME Global Warming. However, if they used 2003 to 2013 instead, there would be no warming at all to talk about, and cooling has begun instead. Meanwhile, CO2 continues to rise rapidly in the opposite direction to average global temperatures. None of this is what they predicted. Serious scientists would say they need to revise or replace their model.
The IPCC is a POLITICAL body who employs scientists to support their position that humans are messing up the Earth’s weather. The IPCC is a political body who is ignoring the Inconvenient Truth that their Global Warming models are not working at all, and there is no support for the idea that humans can control Earth’s weather. They are still paying their scientists to present the data as if the model is still working. Why are they doing this? Because they would all be out of a job otherwise, and so would the politicians who have made inconveniences for us based on the untested model.
The June 2014 IPCC “Summary for Policymakers” no longer emphasizes the current temperature record, because It no longer conforms to their predictions. They continue to refer to climate change models, but they do not refer to their models as “Global Warming” and they don’t say they are based on CO2 (“Carbon”) anymore. Instead, there are references only to “Climate Change” variations and the IPCC claims with even more certainty that Humans are the cause. The self-proclaimed worldwide Authority on Climate Change continues to predict more of what they have failed to prove. The connection between rising levels of CO2 (“Carbon”) and their predicted Global Warming is broken – see below. Actual Satellite measurements show the Earth’s Global Temperatures are now going down. The IPCC cannot talk about very recent global temperature rises anymore, because global warming from any source is just not happening. Cooling is occurring instead.
Humans are not causing any measurable Global Warming, in fact, NOTHING is causing any measurable global warming over the last ten years. The winter o 2013-3014 was the coldest in 30years. However, the IPCC says it is even MORE certain – now 95% confident (90% last year)- that humans are causing a disastrous hot climate future! The IPCC continues to make this prediction when global temperatures are going down! Obviously their models failed to predict this, but they say temperatures will resume rising again, they just don’t know how yet, or when. Their original position was that CO2 controlled ALL the Earth’s weather, and that humans control CO2. This THEORY is the entire reason for their existence. What now? Read the IPCC report itself via the link at the beginning of this paragraph, and see there are references to “Models” but no description of them or how they work anymore. Their models cannot the parallel the past or explain the present. Why should they predict the future? Actual weather is moving in the opposite direction from their predictions. Who are the “Deniers” now?
In this June 2014 report, the IPCC includes a graph (below) of their forecast for worldwide temperature changes to the year 2100. The range is from almost zero increase in the blue range model #6, to plus five degrees Centigrade in the red range model #5. They claim to be the foremost authority on Global Climate Change, but they do not know what model to trust. Then, they represent that Model #5, the hottest Model will be the future (the chart on the bottom right ). They have not acknowledged the current temperature decline, except to say that it is a pause in the rise, and they don’t say why it is happening. It Can’t be CO2 (“Carbon”) anymore, because the Link is broken – but the IPCC will not say what their current forecast is based on. The IPCC claims to be THE authority on Climate Change, so if ANYBODY should know why their forecasts are wrong, it is them. The IPCC should be able to give us an accurate forecast, not such a wide range that their forecast is useless.
Here below is the graph of CO2 (“Carbon”) along with Earth’s Temperature Anomaly since 1958. This is the official records from the same source that the IPCC uses for their measurements. The years in blue are years when global temperatures went down. The IPCC promoted its model during the years in pink, when temperatures went up along with CO2, saying it was proof their model is working. However, their model simply extends the line from 1977 to 2003 out into the future, parallel to the jagged CO2 graph in red. How obvious it is that after 2003, the forecast is wrong. The model does not work, and has been proven to be not working since 2003. However, the IPCC is a POLITICAL body, not a scientific body. Politics do not have to conform to the facts, and politicians very rarely do conform to the facts. Who can we trust?
Below here is a graph of Global Temperatures since 1900 from the same source used by the IPCC, but without the modifications the IPCC made to straighten the line. Looking at this graph, it is quite amazing that any climate scientist would think the constant rising line of CO2 could possibly make this temperature graph happen. It would have been a forced fit, and it still is. The IPCC put forward their predictions with a wink, hoping it would come true, based on temperature data like this that they modified to make a straight upward line. Even we non-experts can put a ruler on the graph and make a straight line sloped upwards. Unfortunately, the IPCC promoted their predictions as very important and urgent, saying “IF” they were right, something had to be done right away to avoid future disaster, even if they were wrong. It was a panic that was spread accross the world. Unfortunately or fortunately, the future disaster has not happened. In fact, a WORSE disaster seems to be starting… deadly Global Cooling…. much more dangerous than Global Warming. Now, we must be honest and realize the predicted hot disastrous future is not going to happen, and stop wasting human energy and huge fortunes preparing for the wrong thing. We must begin preparing for the freeze that has already started, as predicted by the Real Climate Change forces that are much more powerful than any CO2 greenhouse effects.
After all the years and years of fuss about how man-made CO2 (“Carbon”) is causing the Earth’s temperature to rise, NOW the IPCC drops references to their basic theory!! They have to, because it is not working. However, they have not come up with another mechanism or model to explain why they continue to predict future hot climate disaster caused by humans. They don’t say what to expect except more extremes, more disasters, and more heat. They are not bringing attention to the actual measurements. Instead, they talk about melting ice and storms and threatened polar bears (now disproven) and threatened penguins (the author of that story has now retracted it because the penguins just moved to other islands, they did not die or disappear).
The forces of Global Warming stopped at least 10 years ago. The Earth is actually cooling. “What?”, this is not what we have heard lately, you say! The explanation is that the United Nations sponsored IPCC still is viewed as THE authority on Global Climate Change. But the IPCC has it wrong and will not admit it. The explanation is that the IPCC CO2 based Climate Change Models are too simple. Why? It is because the IPCC is dedicated IN THEIR CHARTER to demonstrating that humans are controlling the weather. If they cannot show that, they have no reason to exist. The only major factor they are looking at is the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, because they say they can show that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and they say humans are controlling CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere.
However, there are many forces that control the weather that are far more powerful then the greenhouse effect of CO2. These other more powerful factors include 1) ocean currents that move warm and cold water into distant areas, such as warm El Ninos that the IPCC admits occur, and cold La Ninas that they rarely mention. 2) the relationship between the motion of the planets, the activity of the sun, and how it regulates the amount of cosmic rays that get through from space to the Earth, making for cooling clouds. These are repeating patterns, and simply applying them gives a far better prediction than the IPCC models we have all been told are perfect. 3) CO2 is but a very small part of Earth’s temperature control as a greenhouse gas. 97% of Earth’s greenhouse gas effects are from Water Vapor, not CO2. The IPCC ASSUMED CO2 could control water vapor, but this has been proven wrong. Water vapor stops being a greenhouse gas when it becomes water in clouds and rain or snow, and shades the planet, cooling Earth’s surface.
Here is how the effect of the sun on clouds works.
This indirect way the Sun controls temperatures on Earth fooled even the most qualified Climate Scientists, including the IPCC scientists. Since the actual brightness of the Sun does not change much, the IPCC ASSUMED the sun has no variable effect on Earth’s temperatures. However, when the active Sun’s magnetic field blocks Cosmic rays, the water vapor in our atmosphere remains invisible. Invisible water vapor acts as a greenhouse gas responsible for 97% of global warming. An active Sun, as evidenced by sunspots, prevents the formation of some clouds on Earth, warming the Earth. When the Sun is calm, more clouds form. shading and cooling the Earth. It is hugely more powerful than CO2 . The IPCC ASSUMED, WITHOUT PROOF, that CO2 (“Carbon”) would control the Water Vapor instead of the Sun. This seemed to make sense from about 1977 to about 2003, while temperatures and CO2 both rose together. The Sun was in a very active period, but not brighter, so it looked good. But now there is proof the ASSUMPTION IS WRONG. Just look at the measurements today. Since 2003, CO2 has continued to rise on a straight line, but global temperatures went flat and are now declining fast.
The inactive Sun’s low magnetic field and Solar wind does not block cosmic rays, and this causes more clouds to form on Earth. The Sun went into a very calm period after the year 2000, and seems to be stuck there for a while. There is a very strong correlation between the Sun’s activity and global temperatures in the last 400years. CO2 cannot compete, and does not control water vapor as the IPCC assumed. Water Vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas, but it has a trick to it when it becomes water in clouds. These facts have not been reported in the media yet. The media will soon have to report that actual cooling has begun on Earth and we can stop the panic over hot temperatures. There really should be a panic over the coming cold temperatures, because they are more deadly.
Since 2003, the sun has been extremely quiet, letting cosmic rays get through to Earth. Clouds are made by those cosmic rays (ionizing the water vapor in the atmosphere). The clouds reflect the sun’s heat back into space, cooling us, shading us. At any one time., 63% to 70% of the Earth is covered by clouds (see graph below of global cloud cover vs global temperature). That same cloud cover also makes cool areas next to warm areas, causing more storms and more violent storms, as we have been seeing in recent times. We are getting more clouds now, and the Earth is clearly cooling if you look at the satellite temperature measurements. Global Warming is not causing the violent weather. Instead, it is the beginning of Global Cooling that is making for unstable air with clouds. The current calmness of the sun is generating clouds, resulting in cold, and sometimes violent weather, and it will continue until the Sun wakes up, maybe as late at 2050. This not theory. This is observation of the long term cycles in Nature on Earth as they relate to each other over and over and over again for thousands of years.
Here is the graph of temperatures for the last 100 years along with the mathematically derived line it describes. Anyone who uses a straight line like the red one is missing the patterns that can be used for prediction into the future. Note that since 2003, the line actually hooks down strongly. This is directly opposite to the IPCC’s graphs predicting temperatures would kick up, like the end of a “Hockey-Stick”, and continue upwards following the increasing CO2. Clearly, CO2 is not the cause.
Here is a graph of the actual global temperatures vs. the all the many IPCC models predicting a “Hockey Stick” increase. They just do not follow the actual line after 2003, and they “Wiggle”, showing they are not an accurate representation of actual temperature measurements. When 2013 and 2014 get added on, measured temperatures actually turn downward. The IPCC models do not predict that at all. Why are there so many similar models predicting the wrong thing? That has a simple answer. The IPCC is an assembly of the world’s nations connected with the United Nations. Each country has paid its scientists to run their own version of the same IPCC model trying to show that CO2 controls the worlds temperatures. These paid scientists can ONLY run their version of the IPCC model or they will not get paid by their governments. It is such a good job, they will not disobey. They all see the model is not working, but they are hanging on as long as they can. Mavericks are not tolerated because they show that the “Emporer Has No Clothes”.
What are the facts about the Earth’s temperature history? Why are we told it is caused by CO2? Why are we told that Global Warming is in runaway mode and cannot be stopped? What is really likely to happen to Earth’s Climate in the near future?
If you are an avid follower of science, also read the very detailed scientific article on the major forces that control the Earth’s climate at:
http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landsheidt/iceage.htm
And/or, you can watch the YouTube Audio-Video below that explains what is in that article.
See these videos, and make up your own mind.
The mechanism for an active or inactive sun changing Earth’s weather is not obvious. That is how the IPCC climate scientists were fooled. Here it is, explained again in a slightly different way. The Sun does not radiate more heat or less heat with changes in its activity. Instead, the Sun is either blowing cosmic rays away from the Earth with its own violent Sun-Storms or it is not blowing cosmic rays away. When the Sun is active, it blows away the cosmic rays. There are fewer cosmic rays hitting the water vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere, and Water vapor is allowed to remain invisible. Invisible water Vapor is a much more effective greenhouse gas than CO2, and the Earth warms up. Oppositely, when the Sun is quiet, the cosmic rays get through. The cosmic rays make lots of clouds everywhere on Earth, especially over the moist oceans and tropics. The Southern Hemisphere has more oceans and gets more clouds. The South Pole has been cooling for years. Antarctic ice is at record levels. The Sun is very quiet now. We are very exposed to Cosmic rays. There are more clouds. This has is having a dramatic cooling effect, and is making for more violent weather because of temperature differences between areas with and without clouds.
Here is a video regarding this relationship.
The solar system cycle we are in is unusually stretched out, and the Sun’s activity is very low. Previous similar cycles have the Sun inactive for decades. It may even go to “Sleep” for decades. The bottom line is we may be headed for very cold weather, with the coldest depths about the year 2030 by credible forecasts. Along with the cooling we will get more violent weather, but not because of Man or Woman.
Here is a plot of measured Temperatures on the Earth vs. the amount of Cloud Cover. More Cloud Cover means lower temperatures.
The sun has short and long cycles of activity. We are at the end of a 206 Year cycle and a 166 Year cycle, marked by an extended time of cold weather on Earth. Look back about 200 years and about 400 years into the Earth’s weather history and see what we are in for now. More CO2 “(Carbon”) will not save us. Not even water vapor greenhouse effects will save us.
Here is a recent history of the Sun’s activity. The low activity periods were times when the Earth had “Little Ice Ages”. The one 400 years ago was extreme. We are just finishing a warm period, ending a 200 year cycle.
Here is Today’s sun activity “Sunspot” Cycle. It is the 24th cycle humans have continuously recorded. Note how it is much lower then the last one, and it has a double hump. The double hump is common in low activity cycles like the Little ice ages of the last 200 and 400 years. it is 40% lower than Cycle 23, and 60% lower than cycle 22. This is very serious. Every time this has occurred before, the Earth has cooled dangerously and people die of the cold and die of starvation because crops cannot be raised in lattitudes away from the Earth’s equator.
The long, low, stretched trough of solar activity in cycle 24 is also characteristic of extended periods of inactivity in the past. This means a we are in a long cycle of low temperatures on Earth if we look at the historic record. Meanwhile, CO2 “(Carbon”) keeps going up on a straight line, but it is not helping us stay warm. I wish it could. We all will wish it could.
If you have not already looked at the YouTube videos, do so now, while these concepts are fresh in your mind. Be skeptical. After seeing all the publicity and promotion for Global Warming based on Human Activity, you should be skeptical. They want you to believe their story so you will do what they tell you to do. For a more in-depth explanation of the science, read the article that is linked to above. You are now among those who know what is really happening with our weather. Listen politely as the “Global Warming” promoters avoid explaining why their predictions do not match the reality of measured Earth temperature changes. Lately, they don’t want to say “Global Warming” anymore. They still claim to be THE experts on how Humans are causing disastrous “Climate Change”. They do not have a new model. But the old model no longer works. Be skeptical. THEY ARE NOW THE “DENIERS”, denying the actual weather that does not conform to their predictions. Think for yourself. Get informed independently. Look out the window the next two to five years and see for yourself. Have you noticed winters coming earlier and summers starting later? They have been doing so. Have you noticed more cold temperature records being set than warm temperature records, EVEN IN THE SUMMER? Where does that lead? Longer winters, more cold and more disproof of the IPCC Global Warming predictions. Their positions are POLITICAL, not science based.
Here is more about how that works.
How did we get into this unscientific politically driven madness? There must be a sensible explanation. Well meaning liberal activists are on the wrong side of this Global Warming issue, but with very good intentions. Because they are anti fossil fuels and anti industrialization, the story of man-made “Global Warming” from higher CO2 levels supports their cause. They want to save nature. I also support their cause to preserve nature and stop pollution. However, Human Caused Global Warming is not real. It is a convenient way to take over the liberal activists energies and direct them for political and economic gain. Governments and large economic interests, except for Fossil Fuel producers, are using the liberal activists, and general public opinion for their own political and economic gain. These special interests keep driving the Global Warming message and concealing the difference between the actual weather vs. their forecasts
Carbon Credits and Carbon Taxes are the biggest attempt in human history to extort money from everyone on Earth by making them feel guilty. Carbon Credits are an attempt to extort vast sums of money in the name of saving the Earth. The sales pitch is in the name of Human Caused Global Warming because has worked, and the storytellers point to trusted “scientists”. However, they paid the scientists, who sold themselves out to support the storytellers, because scientists depend on research grants to support themselves. There just are not many sources of employment that pay well for scientists. Liberal activists are like the rest of us – the very people who want to make things better – have unknowingly been victimized. Politics and economics are being used to manipulate liberal activists, and everyone. The beneficiaries are the very same big corporations and rich individuals (such as Al Gore, whose Venture Capital company sells alternative energy equipment and Carbon Capture equipment), along with the very politicians that environmentalists and most of us hate and distrust. We are all being victimized. Perhaps some liberal activists have sold out too, and don’t care, as long as it serves their purposes. That is a deal with The Devil, and The Devil always collects.
The political momentum of “Global Warming” has swept politicians into and out of office., No place has been as active in this area than Australia. Six political leaders won or lost elections on the Carbon Tax issue. This July 2014, Australia repealed ALL of its Carbon Tax laws that were only two years old. Australian voters saw they were being taxed and getting nothing in return. There was no effect on the weather. Their utility bills were rising fast. Their jobs were evaporating. The new prime minister and other politicians won the election by saying they would repeal the Carbon Taxes, and they did.
Researchers who support the idea of man-made “Global Warming” in any way get easy funding. Funding for research is limited, and is not available to research alternative points of view. “Global Warming” “Deniers” have had their careers stunted or destroyed for not going along. It is quite insidious
“Carbon Credits” are a new currency that will be worthless when it is seen that global cooling is the real problem. The creators, bankers (al Gore, etc.), and SELLERS of carbon credits will take home the poker game pot. The BUYERS are being victimized, along with the rest of us, and will lose their investment. Carbon credits will be worthless in five years.
CO2 (“Carbon”) is undeniably on a consistently upward path. If CO2 does not cause Global Warming, is there still a reason to be concerned? Yes there is. It may still be a forewarning of a global disaster we have seen coming for a long time. Why are CO2 levels going up? I discovered a relationship that is actually quite intuitive. It makes sense, and it is scary too. Look at these two charts and see if what is happening on one is connected to the other.
Here is a chart of CO2 concentrations worldwide averaged over March 2001 from Climate4you.com. Actual CO2 concentrations have gone up much more since then.
Here is a moving chart of worldwide fires, mostly man-made, from EOSDIS and Satellites. They have a very similar pattern, and this particular chart shows how they change monthly. When it shows March, the map looks very close to the CO2 map above.
This means that Man-Made OPEN FIRES are the actual dominant mechanism for man-made CO2, and air pollution, not coal fired power plants or cars or trucks or ships or automobiles. World Population in Al Gore’s chart was nearly flat, then suddenly grew exponentially after 1950. That population growth was due to modern medicine, clean water and sanitation. Industrialized nations controlled their populations, and burned fossil fuels. Other parts of the world got the benefits of modern medicine and clean water and sanitation, but not fossil fuels. Instead, their exploding populations burn wood and their greenery, and use fire to clear land. If we really want to make a difference in CO2 and worldwide air pollution THIS is where we have to go to make a BIG difference, and save what is left of the Earth’s natural environment.
To stop worldwide air pollution, we have to stop or slow the burning of wood and plants. GREENERY ABSORBS CO2 and fixes it into plant matter. We have to stop mam-made fires being used for clearing land, cooking and heating, because it destroys greenery and pollutes the atmosphere. We have to stop Man-Made open fires everywhere. THIS is how we stop the pollution that is dirtying up our natural world. At the same time, we must continue to clean up our industrialized areas too with technology, conservation and clean energy. It was brought to our attention that CO2 is rising rapidly. We must honestly recognize that CO2 is actually healthy for the planet. A 10% increase in CO2 doubles the rate of plant growth. Greenhouse growers put CO2 into the greenhouses to make plants grow faster and stronger. For Humans, today’s CO2 could be 20 times higher and still not be toxic. the dominant production of air pollution on the Earth is burning ORGANICS. It is also the destruction of Nature. How many species have gone extinct because of Man-Made open fires, collecting fuel for cooking fires, and heating fires. Probably more than the production and burning of coal or oil or natural gas. This is important.
Yes, we must definitely control emissions from burning fossil fuels, and stop or slow the destruction of nature from digging and drilling and fracking for them. Yes, but fires burning organics are by far a bigger problem with the exponentially increasing human population on Earth. This is a problem that has now been highlighted by the concern for man-made rising CO2 levels. It is not Global Warming, but it is huge Global Pollution and destruction of Nature on the same scale. We need more conservation of energy and more clean energy. We need to bring clean energy and energy conservation technology to the same places we brought modern medicine and clean water and sanitation.
Global Fires also produce smoke and ash that floats around the Earth in air currents. It has been clearly observed that when volcanoes send smoke and ash into the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere cause global cooling by encouraging the formation of clouds, in spite of the huge volume of CO2 that goes with it. The same mechanism may be causing global cooling because of the huge and increasing volume of smoke and ash from human-made fires burning trees, grasses and bushes. With the beginning of Global Cooling because of the effects of the Sun, the particles in the atmosphere could make it even worse.
It appears we are entering an extended cycle of severe Global Cooling. How serious is this? What does this mean for most people? It is deadly. Based on what happened 200 and 400 years ago, It is deadly serious. Food and energy will be more expensive. Many may die of starvation or freezing, as they did about two hundred years ago, and four hundred years ago, when crops failed, and fuel for heating grew scarce or expensive. Our technology will be challenged. Solar panels may not work as well due to longer winters. We need to prepare all populations for the right disaster. It is not Global warming.
All sources of energy will be important tools to save us from global cooling In the near future, even in the next few years. Fossil Fuels may still be essential tools with new technology to make them less polluting and more efficient. We will need energy for HEAT. Even more pressure will be put on Nature than ever in human history, as the billions of people in undeveloped populations burn organics for warmth. We must do something NOW. Meanwhile, To be sure, Politicians and industry will find new ways to make industrialized populations pay even more to adjust to… Global Cooling, because we did not prepare ourselves.
Our Politicians and Big Corporations and Big money are still leading us to prepare for warming, instead of preparing for the cooling that is already here and getting stronger. They are selling us new things based on “Global Warming”. They are short sighted and uninterested in reality if it does not serve their immediate political and economic gains. This is wasteful and cruel.
When it gets much, much colder, they will be there again to offer help, at their price. With today’s internet and phone connected society, we can bypass their strangleholds. We can see the future for ourselves. We can crowd source solutions. We can help each other prepare and cope.
Right now, the theories of the IPCC have been adopted by the general public because they are in alignment with environmental responsibility. However, the IPCC is not a scientific organization at all. It is a POLITICAL organization using paid scientists on a mission. Their theories have been adopted without question because their arguments are persuasive. We want to believe we can save the Earth from Humans. However, the IPCC man-made CO2 model for climate change has been exposed as a fabrication. Their vision of the future disaster is also a fairy tale. They must cling to their authority or disappear. They will not give up easily. We are on our own to know what to do next, to see what will REALLY work to protect our environment, to protect OURSELVES from the coming climate change that is beyond our puny human control.
We have to look at the full science of Earth’s temperature controls, not the limited and Political Science of the IPCC. The tools to begin to understand are here on this page, I think. The Global Warming story will fade fast now. Look out the window and make up your own mind over the next few years to see if winters are indeed getting longer. Weather extremes always exceed records from the past, and they always will. However, these are not caused by Human CO2. They are caused by naturally occuring and cyclical forces that we already understand better. We must stop barking up the wrong tree and take control to save our planet, and save humanity. Perhaps we should apply our resources to prepare for the cold, the shortage of food, the need for energy to keep warm.
In summary, It is unfortunate that we may lose whatever confidence we still have in our politicians, AND we may lose whatever confidence we have in scientists because of the IPCC. They have all betrayed us for their self-interests. They are screaming louder and louder to support their Theories about “Global Warming” (now “Climate Change”) and to keep our attention off of the real weather and off of the fact that they cannot predict the future climate after all. They still claim to be trusted experts. Don’t listen to them, except as a reference. Hopefully, the majority of scientists will declare there is no global warming. Even the thousands of scientists who are being paid to research the effects of assumed global warming on anything and everything. Hopefully, they will all rise up, be true to science, not politics, and confirm that the IPCC emperor has no clothes.
Think for yourself. See the full facts, not just their facts. Use Google Search to get more information. Read. Question. Use your own senses. Look around you for clues to the real direction. If it is Global Cooling, look for the winters getting longer. There is evidence in the very places the IPCC pointed to for global warming. The melting arctic ice in summer has now reversed. There is has been MORE arctic ice each year in the WINTER, but they don’t talk about that. Watch the Antarctic ice. See the new record low temperatures along with the new record high temperatures. Keep an open mind and be prepared to act on it. Listen for other voices to compare to.
The inconvenient truth is really that we are nearing the end of the Earth’s “Holiday” from normal ice ages. What does this mean, and how can we prepare? Here Is the truth:
See http://inconveniencetruth.com for relevant and current data charts and analyses. It is continually being added to. Look at the NASA and NOAA and ICE Monitoring agency information and make up your own mind.
Look for sincere and competent leadership. It seems to be scarce. Self interest still rules, as a rule, but rules are made to be broken. Peace, Love, and save Mother Nature.
Who claims to be the World’s Authority on Climate Change?
Who are the Expert Authors for the IPCC Reports on Climate Change?
Are Statements by the IPCC Accurate, Correct, and Written by Politicians, not Scientists?
Remember the Scares over Population Explosion, Ozone, Acid Rain, Ice Age?
Why Australia Just Repealed ALL Carbon Tax Laws After Just Two Years
Australia has been a battleground for Carbon Tax Debates since about 1988. Six Australian Political leaders have either won or lost elections mainly on this topic. Nobody knows better the details of the cost of trying to stop global warming than the Australians.
Australians were against Carbon Taxes and Renewable Energy taxes. But their representatives thought they knew better and passed them anyway. The voters did not forget. At the next election, in 2014, the Prime Minister and Parliamentarians were elected on a promise to repeal the Carbon Tax laws. They did repeal them in July 2014.
Here is how it went down:
As an aside, nobody would have expected this: Al Gore appeared during the carbontax repeal discussions, alongside industrialist Clive Palmer. Al Gore said to repeal the carbon tax laws! Al Gore saw how unpopular the Carbon Tax laws were, and realized public opinion was threatening the Renewal Energy Tax. That Renewable Energy tax is intended to provide $2.7 Million of subsidies that Al Gore’s Venture Capital company will get contracts to perform in Austrailia, along with contracts for retrofits for the Coal Mines, the Iron Mines and Steel Plants and the Aluminum (Bauxite) Mines and Aluminum plants.
It turns out that Al Gore’s ethics can be bought, the same as the “scientists” who promote the unfounded fear of Global Warming. It is Science itself that these “Scientists” are abandoning. It is Al Gore who Global Warming believers will not abandon. Al Gore MUST be right, because he got a Nobel Prize and an Academy Award! However, it has come down to this as global warming has turned to Global Cooling for the long run. Question: do you believe your eyes and other senses that show you the real climate, or do you believe Al Gore and the weather he predicts that is not happening day after week after month after year after decade? Choose from Reality or fairy tale… you can live in one or the other, but fairy tales come to an end. Reality is forever.
Finally, there is clear evidence that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology made intentional changes to Actual Measured Temperature Records in order to change cooling to warming over the last 100 years. When challenged, the ABM said they thought the measuring station “might have been moved”. However, the measuring station had NEVER been moved, and past temperatures had been deliberately lowered by as much as 1.8% Celsius going back from 1979 to 1913 because they did not comply with the preconceived Global Warming scenario. This was called “Homogenization”, or blending to match other measuring station data. There are calls in August 2014 for heads to roll in the organization for not using the raw temperature measurements.
Who’s going to be sacked for making-up global warming at Rutherglen?
Why Water Vapor Dominates Earth’s Temperatures with the Sun
Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com
Water Vapor at higher altitudes has been decreasing without an explanation so far. What happens to water vapor when it disappears? Most of it stays close to the surface. It becomes precipitation, OR, it becomes clouds. Water vapor that condenses into water droplets becomes clouds, releasing heat, a negative feedback, because heated air holds more water vapor. This re-heating contributes to the stability of clouds by slowing their formation. Some of the droplets combine to precipitate as rain or snow, and may make it to the surface before being evaporated again by higher temperatures closer to the surface – also a negative feedback, because evaporation absorbs heat, cooling the air, reducing the capacity of air to contain water vapor. The drops or ice get bigger and more numerous as they fall. However, if the condensed water becomes LOW CLOUDS, then these clouds absorb and re-radiate heat from land and water surfaces, becoming stable. This cloud (suspended water droplets) greenhouse effect keeps substantial surface radiation from escaping into space at night, but clouds are even more effective at reflecting the sun’s radiation during the day. The cooling reflective effect of clouds seem to dominate. Henrik Svensmark’s model for Solar Magnetic Fields (closely follows sunspot numbers) affecting low cloud formation on Earth is being reinforced by other researchers. Read Summary by Anthony Watts http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/10/more-support-for-svensmarks-cosmic-ray-modulation-of-earths-climate-hypothesis/ .We may finally have a model for the biggest driver of Earthly Temperatures. Forecasting effectively means forecasting Solar Cycles, overriding water vapor or water droplet greenhouse feedback. Full article by Fangqun Yu and Gan Luo is here:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/4/045004/pdf/1748-9326_9_4_045004.pdf.
It is essentially informative to read Dr. Roy Spencer, where he pointed out the powerful influence of a slight change in cloud cover in his 2010 book intro of The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists. He writes:
“The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.”
There really is nothing new today in the Global Warming Debate, including the arrogant single mindedness of the promoters of CO2 warming theory, who choose to discount, distort or ignore much larger drivers of Earth’s climate and temperature. This is especially true of the huge quantum absorption and release of heat as water changes phases in the classic water cycle. The newly discovered indirect effect of solar activity on clouds in this water cycle explain that the Sun is THE master of global climate change. Oh, yes, politics, as usual uses distraction by focusing on the heat storage capacity of CO2, while those effects are insignificant compared to water.
Ninth Annual International Conference on Climate Change meets July 7 in Las Vegas
The ninth annual convention of the most prestigious climate scientists in the world meets at the Mandelay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas July 7, 2014.
Videos of this conference presentations and prior right conventions are here:
Evidence that Global warming has turned to global cooling is clear now.
This Conference will focus on why this is happening, how the models for climate change can be improved, and what we can do about it. There are sure to be fireworks as the climate scientists conduct their debate. Don’t miss it. Videos of the presentations are on line for prior years, and will be posted as they occur on the website
This will be an objective evaluation of recent climate events and model improvements.
Human Influence is in Non-Industrialized Places
By Paul Litely at Paullitely.com
I expect to see this chart, and other revealing charts at the ICCC9 in Las Vegas July 7-10. See you there. This should be the year to get the broader media to pay attention to scientific attempts to improve the climate change models so they actually predict what happens, IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE. The Earth’s climate is so complex, and there are so many localized effects, that I seriously doubt we can make accurate useful predictions on a scale of 10’s of years. But we keep trying. The IPCC Climate Change models based on CO2 levels are obviously too simplistic, because they are falling short of their own expectations.
Where does human influence come in? If there is a human effect, and there must be something, perhaps the largest influence is from particulates and emissions from manmade fires. The exponentially exploding populations that burn wood and clear land are the biggest contributors to pollution of the air. They have been dumping increasing amounts of particles and gasses into the atmosphere. These are NON-Industrialized societies. The “Hockey Stick” bend to higher temperatures in Al Gore’s CO2 caused temperature graph occurred at about 1950. What happened in about 1950? Modern Medicine began in 1950 with penicillin and other antibiotics.
Antbiotics, modern medicine, and Sanitation and Clean water have been brought to non-industrialized parts of the world to save lives, and they have done so. Non-Industrialized societies do not exercise population control as the industrialized societies do, so natural deaths were the only control. Since 1950, the world population has exponentially increased, especially in the non-insustrialized societies, so their contribution to pollution and destruction of nature has exponentially risen, while industrialized societies have limited their populations and consciously cleaned up their pollution contributions. To make a significant difference in human-caused pollution that might affect climate, the non-industrialized societies must be engaged. Instead of harrying industrialized societies for their pollution, the focus should be on the vastly greater non-industrialized societies for their rapidly increasing pollution and destruction of CO2 absorbing greenery. After all, our common goal is a clean and sustainable environment for everyone, is it not? Or is it political and economic gain for the few in industrialized societies?
Thank you for doing your part to raise awareness of the need to refine climate change models. See you in Las Vegas.
paullitely 
