“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.” says Hans Von Storch – Director of the Institute for Coastal Research
“Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
However, he calls into question the methodology of many others and their interpretation of the data.
How valid are the regression-type methodologies for reconstruction of actual historical climates?
“Regression-type models are designed so that they return only part of the full variability of the variable of interest, namely that part which can be traced back to the proxies. Not all of the variability can be accounted for in this way. The difference in variability of temperature and of proxy-derived temperature is dealt with by “scaling”, i.e., by applying a suitable normalization. If “scaling” is used, then the basic principle of regression is violated, as the part of variability in the predict and (temperature), which can not statistically traced back to the predictor (proxy), is nevertheless related to predictor-variability.”
How relevant are these reconstructions for claims that we presently experience a climate change outside the range of what we consider as “normal?”
“One would expect it to manifest itself with a higher “than normal” rate of change. Thus, the signal is expected to be a rapid warming in the most recent past. The method to test this hypothesis is to find out if we have a “steeper-than-normal” recent upward temperature trend.”
“According to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero.”
Did you get that?
CLOSE TO ZERO…
It’s in the IPCC June 2014 Fifth Assessment report AR5:
“…the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence). The decline in the rate of increase in ERF is primarily attributed to natural (solar and volcanic) forcing but there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol forcing trend.” (AR5 Chapter 11).
The Solar Forcing Trend is indirect, so they do not consider it to be significant, and it fooled them, even though it turns out to be dominant by regulating cloud formation.