I have been asked for a simple explanation of the science in the Global Warming Debate

Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com

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Follow this link to a current article that very accurately summarizes today’s Climate Science Debate

Mail OnLine article 22 September 2014

I have been asked for a simple explanation of the science in the Global Warming Debate. After Six years of following it, I do understand, so here it is in simple terms.

The global Warming “scientists” would have you believe that the simple basic water cycle you learned about in Elementary School or Kindergarten breaks down and works differently with the introduction of a tiny bit of warming from the human caused 10% of the Green House Gas (GHG) effect of Carbon Dioxide.

Green House Gasses are called that because they absorb and hold heat, then can send that heat back out as radiation. Anyone in hot and humid weather feels as if they are inside a greenhouse, with the water vapor in the air itself radiating heat, because it does.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) only accounts for 0.6% of the Green House Gas effect in our Earth’s Atmosphere. 97% of the Green House Gas effect is from water vapor.  Water Vapor is not wet, it is humidity, it is a gas.

The Global Warming THEORY (GWT) proposes that if heat comes from CO2, then this 97% of GHG effect from Water Vapor can behave differently from what naturally happens… without proof or experiment.  This is a surprisingly unscientific claim.

The natural water cycle is described as the sun heating seas, evaporating water into vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere. When water is evaporated, it absorbs heat, cooling everything around it, and this slows the evaporation so it takes more and more heat to continue evaporating. The water vapor is lighter than air, so it rises until it reaches an altitude where the air is naturally much cooler, and there it condenses.  When water vapor condenses, it returns to water form as clouds, fog, or mist, rain and snow.  When water condenses, it releases heat into the clouds, warming the clouds, and this slows the condensation. The clouds radiate much of that heat up into space,never to return, and the cold air up there carries away even more heat.  Clouds continue to form, until finally the tiny water droplets combine and get heavy, to fall as rain or snow.  The clouds also reflect the sun’s radiation with their bright white tops.shading and cooling the seas or land underneath. The cycle is repeated, and the water that fell as rain or snow is then heated and evaporated and becomes clouds, then rain and snow and round and round. Solar energy can only push temperatures so far, because heat is lost by radiation into space by the clouds, and clouds themselves reflect as much as 400 watts per square meter back towards the sun and space. The atmosphere will continue cooling by itself unless the Sun adds more heat. This natural temperature limiting is called a “Negative Feedback” System, and is responsible for stable temperature ranges by heating the land and seas when the sun is not blocked by clouds, and cooling when there are clouds.

The First unnatural and Fatal Assumption of GWT is that the warming from CO2 can cause a dramatic increase in the evaporation of water from the Earth’s seas into the atmosphere and add significantly to the water vapor that is there. This does not happen, because CO2 is only responsible for 0.6% of the Earth’s Green House Gas effect. This unnatural assumption goes on to say that the heating from the CO2 causes evaporation, making significant amounts of added water vapor. GWT assumes that the added water vapor continues to accumulate as a green house gas without forming clouds or rain or snow. This assumption is known in the theory as amplification, and is the very basis for identifying CO2 as making Global Warming. But CO2 is so weak as a Direct Green House Gas that it does little to significantly increase the water vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere.

The second unnatural and Fatal Assumption is that the Earth’s Atmosphere can absorb huge amounts of Water Vapor without making more clouds and Rain or Snow. Air that is already saturated with Water Vapor cannot absorb more… it just condenses into clouds, rain or snow. GWT assumes that this extra water vapor goes into the upper atmosphere above the clouds to act as a greenhouse gas where the air is drier. This has never been observed. This does not happen, and in fact, the upper atmosphere has been getting dryer over the last twenty years. GWT claims that this would happen especially at the Earth’s equator, where the intensity of the sun is nearly constant with the seasons. What has been observed instead is warmer water makes  more clouds, and rain, and in fact, that is the source of tropical storms. There has been no observed increase in water vapor at higher altitudes, even in between the clouds.

The Third unnatural and fatal assumption is that this additional water vapor in the upper atmosphere will act as a greenhouse gas, increase the warming below, causing more evaporation of the seas. They say that more evaporation makes more water vapor, and that makes for more warming, making more water vapor, and around and around in a runaway heating cycle without making more clouds or rain or snow. If this did happen, we would be in a very hot and humid atmosphere everywhere that would not need any help from CO2. CO2 would be even more insignificant. This is called a “Positive Feedback” System, where the sun could go away entirely, but the atmosphere would keep on getting warmer or stay hot. Is this a likely scenario? No. Clouds are the automatic regulator against runaway heating.

The Fourth Unnatural and Fatal Assumption is that the CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is mostly increasing because of humans burning Fossil Fuels, and it is a dangerous, even poisonous gas. In fact, over 90% of the CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is continually turning over, being made and absorbed by natural processes. All green plants need and want CO2 for healthy growth. It is estimated that less than 10% of the CO2 is man made, but the exact amount is unknown. GWT accountants add it up, and others estimate the CO2 emitted from known sources, including power plants and transportation.
The level of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is about 400 parts per million. It has been as high as 2200 parts per million in the Earth’s past, and from experiments, the ideal level for plants is 2000 parts per million. Greenhouses in Canada direct the exhaust from their heaters directly into their greenhouses to double the plant growth and health from the added CO2.. Humans do not notice concentrations as high as 800 Parts per million unless doing strenuous exercise. High CO2 levels in the bloodstream give us our breathing reflex. We put CO2 in sparkling drinks.  How poisonous is that?

Why would scientists, who are expected by everyone to be objective in their research and their work, propose that the well known natural water cycle behaves differently if a little bit of heat comes from CO2 as a greenhouse gas?

Why would scientists who may lead boring and underpaid lives support the obviously flawed GWT in response to Billions of dollars offered by the United Nations, and the governments of developed countries?
Why would politicians support GWT so they can tax and spend and create whole new industries and businesses for their friends and supporters, and get re-elected boasting about their accomplishments?
Why WOULDN’T They? Besides, they can be  justified by the agenda of the Global Warming Theorists, appealing to many scientists who believe in less industrialization and less consumption of Fossil Fuels. The goal is to make Humans Change their behavior and burn less Fossil Fuels. If it means bending natures laws without her permission, being paid well, traveling the world, being recognized favorably by politicians and heads of state, being published and peer reviewed by like minded scientists and non-scientists, and declaring in unison that increased CO2 is hazardous according to their MODEL so be it. They are said to be on the “Cocktail Shrimp Tour” within their own ranks.  Climate Research had an annual budget of $50 Million Dollars in the 1970s.  Today, its over $30 Billion.  It is so big it is no longer science, it is international politics and employment.
However, Scientists and Politicians who promote GWT live in daily fear of losing their grants and their paychecks and their positions of personal status.  The actual weather has turned opposite to what has been predicted by GWT. It is getting much colder, not much warmer. The CO2 Global Warming promoters are fighting and clawing and getting aggressive and louder and even more outrageous in their claims and explanations, to try to align PERCEPTIONS of their theory to the actual weather. At some point soon, all credibility will be lost. Cold is not hot. Black is not the new White.

Australians are known for being shrewd judges of character. Australia lead the way on Global Warming by instituting Carbon Tax laws.  Australia lead the way again two years later by repealing all twelve of them and electing a new government on that promise in 2014. More than half of the Australian population polled in 2014 thinks what is being done in the name of “Carbon” will make little or no difference in the Earth’s climate. They elected a new government on promises to repeal the Carbon Tax laws, done, and the new Australian Prime Minister Abbott sacked the head of the “Climate Office”, sacked all the employees, and closed the “Climate Office”   .

In the UK, Prime Minister David Cameron saw evidence that over 30,000 pensioners died last winter from having to choose to pay to either eat or heat. Some did not get enough of either. The pursuit of “Carbon” has raised the price of food and energy. This is very unpopular for those who live on fixed incomes and vote.  David Cameron has seen what happened in Australia, and he wants none of it. David Cameron is quoted as saying privately “We’ve got to get rid of all this green crap”. After the UK, we could be next, if the US begins carbon taxes, driving up the price of essentials such as rent, fuel and food for everybody.

This agenda against burning fossil fuels is obvious because they make no mention of the vast amounts of Carbon Dioxide generated by humans in lesser developed countries that have no big power plants or cities teaming with fossil-fueled traffic.
Over half of the human population on Earth burns wood or dung or peat for heating and cooking and sets fires for land clearing and flushing out game for hunting. The vast amounts of CO2 from these sources is ignored by the GWT.  They just count the known estimated tons of CO2 “Carbon” from power plants and vehicles and demand a reduction. (BTW, The use of the term “Carbon” is totally unscientific. Carbon is a solid, is in every living thing, and has none of the characteristics of CO2.)

Just the CO2 and pollution from Sumatra alone in one year exceeds the CO2 and pollution from all the Cars and Trucks in the US.  A family of four in Africa burns 14 Kilos of wood a DAY for heating and cooking. Vast areas of organics are burned by Humans, or are naturally set on fire by lightning every year. The quest for more things to burn, results in a desert landscape and the obliteration of Greenery that keeps CO2 and Oxygen in balance.

Viewed this way, it is obvious that the GWT agenda is to reduce industrialization and burning of Fossil Fuels, while ignoring the possibility of making a huge difference in lesser developed countries  Burning wood, dung, or peat results in awful pollution that is truly dirty, sooty, ash filled smoky and hazardous to human health.  If CO2 reduction and atmospheric pollution reduction were the goal, it is even more important to attack those sources of CO2. Some of those lesser developed countries are doing a good job on their own. Dominican Republic, next to Haiti has banned burning wood or using fires for land clearing. Other countries require at least one tree to be planted when one is cut down. Consequently, their air is cleaner, and they have much more greenery to absorb CO2 and release oxygen.

Reducing air pollution, and preserving or restoring nature is a noble and worthy effort. I am an environmentalist and a nature lover. However, making life more expensive, inconvenient uncomfortable, and difficult, even to the point of death from having to choose between eating or heating in the winter is immoral when the stated goal is to control the Earth’s weather.  It is simply impossible for humans to control the weather on a global scale. It is a political agenda of lies, and an impossible science. It has created whole new industries that, like the fossil fuel industry are supported by extravagant tax subsidies. Is it worth it?

Renewable energy is a great idea, if practical. Fossil fuels from dastardly dirty recovery techniques such as “Fracking” are sacrificing our natural future with irretrievable underground pollution. Windmill farms will be even more unsightly when they are no longer economical to maintain. Solar panels may not work as well in the coming longer colder winters caused by increased cloud cover.

GWT promoters said at the beginning they MAY BE WRONG, but just in case, we should do something about it.  The recent weather shows they were clearly wrong when theorizing that CO2 in the atmosphere dominates the Earth’s climate future.  Heating from CO2 greenhouse gas effects is not amplified by the dominant Greenhouse Gas, Water  Vapor as if there were no limits.  Water Vapor continues to act normally.  Water Vapor still absorbs the sun’s energy and makes clouds and rain and snow in response to Solar energy. Clouds reflect nearly all Solar Infrared (heating) energy.  The absorption of heat by evaporation to be released back into space by clouds, and reflection of Solar heating energy by clouds limits temperature rises. Solar Energy is continually being heavily “Grounded”, and cannot possibly go into runaway warming. Clouds are the reason, and the thermostat effects of clouds were left out of the GWT model.

The GWT model was blindsided dramatically by an unexpected indirect effect of the Sun’s Activity on clouds.  The Sun’s Activity is measured by the numbers of Sunspots.  Since the Sun’s infrared (Heating) radiation only varies by about 3%, GWT discounted the effects of the Sun’s Activity on Global Climate.  They said this is not enough to compete with the AMPLIFIED greenhouse gas effects of CO2.  What fooled them is that there is an indirect effect of the Sun’s activity… it changes the amount of clouds covering the surface of Earth.  They were focused on CO2, and could not explain why a clear relationship between the Sun’s activity and the formation of clouds has been observed in the Earth’s historical record.  So, they left it out.   What was needed was an explanation.  The clue came from another observation in the Earth’s historic record.  The Earth’s temperature record is almost exactly opposite to the amount of Cosmic Rays that have reached Earth.   It is such a tight match that it is obvious there is a simple mechanism.  Experimental results have confirmed THIS theory.  Here is how it works.  When the Sun is quiet, the Sun’s magnetic field is only strong close to the sun and does not extend out to Earth.  This allows Cosmic rays (loose high-energy protons and neutrons and electrons) to enter the Earth’s atmosphere and assist in the formation of clouds.  This cools the Earth.   When the Sun is Very active, the Sun’s magnetic field deflects cosmic rays away from the Earth’s atmosphere.  This prevents the formation of some of the Earth’s clouds, allowing the Sun’s heating radiation to the surface of the land and oceans.  This heats the Earth. Basically, the activity of the sun controls the blinds (clouds) that block the Sun’s infrared (Heating) energy from reaching the surface of the Earth.

Active Sun opens the blinds.  Calm Sun closes the blinds.  Now THIS IS AN AMPLIFICATION.

This Video explains the MULTIPLE ways we know the Earth’s climate closely follows the activity of the Sun (spots).

Why is it important that an active Sun or an inactive Sun causes an amplified effect on the Earth’s temperature?  It is EXTREMELY  important today.  For almost two hundred years, since the last deep cold period on Earth, the Sun’s activity has been doing it’s usual 22-year long cycles, with the peak high cycles about the same strength.  THEN, the peak in 2003 was 30% lower.  AGAIN, next peak in 2014 is 30% lower.  This means the current Sun activity peak is 60% BELOW NORMAL.  It appears that the next peak could be lower still, as the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse. This is happening right on time according to historic records of long term solar cycle variations, and is much more serious than the last deep cold period 200 years ago.  So, just what is happening on time?  A mini ice age, as the Sun’s extremely low activity allows cosmic rays through to form clouds on the Earth, blocking the Sun’s heating radiation.  This is scary.  The high speed of the cooling has been obvious since 2012.  Global temperatures are headed downward fast.  Polar Ice came back almost to normal in two years. Antarctic ice is at the highest in recorded history. The great lakes froze over in the winter of 2013-2014.

Cold temperature records are being set, Winter AND Summer.

Global cooling is happening, and, according to Russian Climate scientists who are not being paid to promote GWT, it will go on for 30 years or more.

German Climate Scientists have joined in saying we are already into a deadly Global Cooling cycle.

Australian Climate Scientists were way ahead of them all.

In the US, with two more long and very cold winters, and two more cold summers ahead, coupled with implementing “Carbon Taxes” could result in a new government being swept into power by public opinion as happened in Australia. https://t.co/wsU3ONZ2KW  It could result in a Republican president and majority in both houses of congress in 2016. Citizens and voters will not be very kind to their leaders for increasing the cost of food and fuel and general living while preparing them for a future of increasing heat, when the opposite is happening, increasing cold, deadly cold, leading to decades of more cold, where energy for heating means life or death and food is scarce. The credibility lost for Politicians may also be lost for science itself for selling itself out. I hope not. I hope I am wrong, but I have a 97% consensus within myself that I am right from watching the weather, and reviewing ALL the science in open debate.

  • Paul Claeyssens
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4 thoughts on “I have been asked for a simple explanation of the science in the Global Warming Debate

  1. The rise in CO2 follows the rise in temperature. This is evident on all time scales, from years to hundreds of millennia. There is a mountain of empirical evidence that proves ∆T is the CAUSE of ∆CO2. But there is NO evidence showing that ∆CO2 causes ∆T.

    Those are verifiable facts. What is your conclusion?

    Also, anthropogenic global warming [AGW] is not a ‘theory’, it is only a conjecture; an opinion. To be a theory, AGW would have to be able to make repeated, accurate predictions. It cannot do that. The AGW model was not even able to predict the most significant event of the past two decades: the fact that global warming stopped in the late 1990’s.

    Again, what are your conclusions?

    The only rational conclusion is that the AGW conjecture is wrong. CO2 may cause some minuscule warming. But it is so negligible that it cannot even be measured. There are no verifiable empirical measurements showing that human-emitted CO2 causes any warming.

    Everything asserted in this comment is verifiable. It is factual scientific evidence and observations.

    What are your conclusions?

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    1. It matters not what CO2 does. It is such an insignificant part of the greenhouse gasses, especially if you look at the tiny part of the infrared spectrum it interacts with. Water Vapor has a broad spectrum of absorption and re-radiation in the infrared, and has this amazing property of condensing into clouds and precipitation, whereby it releases the energy it has absorbs in a quantum way. Decreasing Cloud cover in recent times has resulted in higher Global Surface temperatures, as you would expect. This effect is far greater even than the greenhouse effect of water vapor.

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