Written by Paul Litely at Paullitely.com
Water Vapor at higher altitudes has been decreasing without an explanation so far. What happens to water vapor when it disappears? Most of it stays close to the surface. It becomes precipitation, OR, it becomes clouds. Water vapor that condenses into water droplets becomes clouds, releasing heat, a negative feedback, because heated air holds more water vapor. This re-heating contributes to the stability of clouds by slowing their formation. Some of the droplets combine to precipitate as rain or snow, and may make it to the surface before being evaporated again by higher temperatures closer to the surface – also a negative feedback, because evaporation absorbs heat, cooling the air, reducing the capacity of air to contain water vapor. The drops or ice get bigger and more numerous as they fall. However, if the condensed water becomes LOW CLOUDS, then these clouds absorb and re-radiate heat from land and water surfaces, becoming stable. This cloud (suspended water droplets) greenhouse effect keeps substantial surface radiation from escaping into space at night, but clouds are even more effective at reflecting the sun’s radiation during the day. The cooling reflective effect of clouds seem to dominate. Henrik Svensmark’s model for Solar Magnetic Fields (closely follows sunspot numbers) affecting low cloud formation on Earth is being reinforced by other researchers. Read Summary by Anthony Watts http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/10/more-support-for-svensmarks-cosmic-ray-modulation-of-earths-climate-hypothesis/ .We may finally have a model for the biggest driver of Earthly Temperatures. Forecasting effectively means forecasting Solar Cycles, overriding water vapor or water droplet greenhouse feedback. Full article by Fangqun Yu and Gan Luo is here:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/4/045004/pdf/1748-9326_9_4_045004.pdf.
It is essentially informative to read Dr. Roy Spencer, where he pointed out the powerful influence of a slight change in cloud cover in his 2010 book intro of The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists. He writes:
“The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.”
There really is nothing new today in the Global Warming Debate, including the arrogant single mindedness of the promoters of CO2 warming theory, who choose to discount, distort or ignore much larger drivers of Earth’s climate and temperature. This is especially true of the huge quantum absorption and release of heat as water changes phases in the classic water cycle. The newly discovered indirect effect of solar activity on clouds in this water cycle explain that the Sun is THE master of global climate change. Oh, yes, politics, as usual uses distraction by focusing on the heat storage capacity of CO2, while those effects are insignificant compared to water.